By Kei Emmanuel Duku
The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) and the recently adjourned Tumaini Peace talks in Nairobi, face imminent collapse, activists say.
The presence of Ugandan military forces and escalating clashes across South Sudan are cited as key destabilizing factors.
Boboya James, an activist, policy analyst, and researcher described both the Nairobi talks and the R-ARCSS as being in “critical condition,” akin to patients in the “Intensive Care Unit.”
He characterized Dr. Machar’s opposition factions as strategically incisive, noting their continued adherence to the agreement, which prevents its automatic collapse.
“The government is creating an environment designed to push opposition groups to abandon the agreement, enabling them to implement a skeletal version,” James said. “However, the opposition is wisely sticking to the agreement, denying them that opportunity.”
James argued that the Tumaini Initiative, intended to complement the R-ARCSS, has been sidelined, with key actors neglecting both dialogue and the implementation of pending tasks within the revitalized agreement.
The deployment of troops from Ugandan, a guarantor of the R-ARCSS alongside Sudan, has further complicated the peace process, James noted.
Mr. James asserted that this deployment violates the agreement’s call for the withdrawal of foreign forces.
“The presence of the UPDF in South Sudan undermines the peace process, as they are seen as supporting one party, not the entirety of the R-ARCSS,” he stated.
James emphasized that foreign troop deployment should only be justified if aimed at enforcing peace, unifying the national army, or training and equipping forces. Any other purpose, he argued, constitutes a grave violation of the agreement. He stressed the importance of a well-trained national army for protecting sovereignty and facilitating democratization.
He expressed doubt regarding the leaders’ ability to resolve the current crisis and resume peace implementation.
Rajab Mohandis, a stakeholder in the Tumaini Initiative, attributed the Ugandan deployment to the government and signatories’ failure to establish a meaningful political process to resolve the security crisis.
He suggested a constructive, inclusive, and objective political process could address the deployment without jeopardizing the R-ARCSS.
Dr. Machar recently sought regional and global intervention regarding the Ugandan forces.
However, Mohandis criticized Dr. Machar for bypassing internal security mechanisms and seeking foreign support.
“Dr. Machar and others are not addressing the root causes,” Mohandis said. “The failure to implement the R-ARCSS has fueled insecurity. This failure created the conditions for foreign forces to be invited.”
He argued that the lack of unity among signatories has rendered the Transitional Government of National Unity ineffective. The R-ARCSS’s inability to resolve the political crisis led to the unilateral deployment of Ugandan forces.
“If the agreement were functioning as intended, it would protect South Sudanese citizens and territories,” Mohandis stated. “The failure to protect civilians signifies a failed unity government.”
He urged peace actors to reassess the situation and work towards implementing the agreement and finding lasting solutions.
“The leaders must acknowledge the agreement is no longer effective and is now contributing to the crisis,” Mohandis concluded. “The public must demand accountability.”
Clashes that triggered the Ugandan deployment began in Western Equatoria State in February and have since spread.