By Philip Buda Ladu
African Union’s (AU) Panel of the Wise embarks on a critical four-day mission to address the escalating political instability in the country.
Led by former Kenyan judge Effie Owuor the team arrived in Juba yesterday, expected to meet President Salva Kiir Mayardit and detained First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar and other stakeholders in the peace agreement.
The AU expressed deep concern over the potential collapse of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), and dispatched the high-level delegation, which includes former Burundian President Domitien Ndayizeye.
This mission comes amidst heightened tensions following clashes in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, and the subsequent detention of key opposition figures, including First Vice President Riek Machar.
The AU’s intervention reflects growing international alarm. Recent violence in Nasir resulted in numerous deaths, including a South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) area commander and a United Nations pilot.
Rooted in historical divisions, the clashes between the SSPDF and the “White Army” affiliated with Machar coupled with widespread attacks on SPLA-IO cantonment sites and unified forces training across the country, have reignited fears of a return to full-blown conflict.
South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011, has struggled to maintain stability since the devastating five-year civil war between forces loyal to Kiir and Machar, which ended with the 2018 peace deal.
However, the fragile peace has been repeatedly threatened by continued distrust and renewed clashes between the two leaders, straining relations and destabilizing the nation.
Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth, confirmed Machar’s house arrest, citing “conflict with the law” and ongoing investigations.
However, the SPLM-IO, Machar’s political party, alleges that their chairman, along with his wife Angelina Teny, were arrested on March 26, 2025, under President Kiir’s directive.
The SPLM-IO has also expressed regret that IGAD Special Envoy Hon. Raila Odinga was not granted access to meet Machar during his recent visit to Juba where he proceeded to meet Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni in Kampala.
“Dr. Riek Machar was arrested because he is charged, accused of being in conflict with the law,” Makuei stated during a press conference last month, referencing alleged contacts between Machar and his bases that purportedly triggered unrest in March in the Upper Nile region.
Meanwhile, the SPLM-IO, in a statement released Wednesday, welcomed the AU Panel of the Wise and acknowledged Odinga’s efforts, emphasizing their commitment to the R-ARCSS.
“SPLM-IO remains steadfast in its commitment to constructive engagement and meaningful dialogue to ensure the full implementation of the peace agreement for the benefit of all South Sudanese,” stated Reath Muoch Tang, Acting Chairperson of the National Committee on Foreign Relations of SPLM-IO.
James Boboya Edimond, a policy analyst and lead consultant at the Institute of Social Policy and Research (ISPR), emphasized the Panel’s critical role in discerning the legal basis of Machar’s detention.
Boboya strongly believes that the AU’s choice of nominating Effie Owuor a Kenyan prominent lawyer and judge who was the country’s first female State Counsel, Magistrate, High Court Judge, as head of the high-level delegation is to probe Machar’s legal implications.
“Her arrival in Juba will help the AU determine if there are legal issues involving Riek Machar or if they are merely political,” Boboya stated. He recommended the Panel engage with all parties and remain in Juba until a meaningful dialogue is established.
Effie Owuor’s extensive legal background, including her pioneering role as Kenya’s first female State Counsel, Magistrate, High Court Judge, and Court of Appeal Judge, positions her uniquely to navigate the complex legal dimensions of the crisis.
Bol Deng Bol, Executive Director of INTREPID South Sudan urged the delegation of the African Union’s Penal of the Wise to persuade the Leaders to a roundtable at all costs including remaining in Juba until that is attained.
“South Sudanese are tired of war including our leaders,” Deng stated.
He urged the Panel to facilitate a comprehensive dialogue involving all stakeholders, including civil society, faith-based groups, women’s groups, and academia, and to remain in Juba until a resolution is reached.
“Coming to merely assess the situation is not helping,” Deng added, advocating for concrete action to revive the R-ARCSS and pave the way for democratic elections in 2026.
The AU Panel of the Wise’s mission represents a crucial opportunity to de-escalate tensions and prevent a return to widespread conflict.
The international community, alongside the South Sudanese people, awaits their findings and recommendations with anticipation, hoping for a path toward lasting peace and stability.