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Heavy rains expected to cause flooding in northern parts of South Sudan

By No. 1 Citizen

 

Heavy rains, with potential of causing flood are expected in most parts of South Sudan and the surrounding region in the upcoming week (July 10th-17th, 2024), according to the IGAD Climate and Application Centre (ICPAC).

According to ICPAC, heavy rainfall (over 200mm) is expected in southwestern Sudan, cross-border areas of Sudan and South Sudan, and northwestern Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is forecast for most of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, central to southern Sudan, central to northern Uganda, and western Kenya.

However, central Sudan, southern Ethiopia, northwestern Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, and eastern Tanzania, are expected to receive, light rainfall (less than 50mm).

Rainfall anomalies

Above-average rainfall is expected over parts of southern Sudan, northern and southern South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya, and western and northeastern Ethiopia.

Below-average rainfall is forecast for a few areas in central South Sudan, central Ethiopia, and parts of the coastal regions of Eritrea and Sudan.

Exceptional rainfall

Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% of historical records are expected over southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and parts of western Eritrea.

Rainfall exceeding the top 5% of historical records is forecast for cross-border areas of Sudan and South Sudan, as well as northern Ethiopia.

Flood risk

The extremely heavy rainfall in southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and parts of western Eritrea is likely to lead to flooding.

ICPAC is advising the communities in the high-risk areas to exercise caution during July 10-17, 2024. Residents in flood-prone areas of South Sudan and neighboring regions should remain vigilant in the coming days.

Temperature outlook

It further predicted that hot temperatures (above 32°C) are expected across much of central to northern Sudan, northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and parts of Eritrea and northwestern Somalia.

Meanwhile, moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) are forecast for most of South Sudan, southern Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and eastern and northwestern Tanzania.

Mild temperatures (below 20°C) are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, parts of central to southern Tanzania, central to southwestern Kenya, and central to southern Ethiopia.

In overall, the Greater Horn of Africa region is expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, with elevated heat stress in central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, and coastal areas of Sudan, Eritrea, and northwestern Somalia.

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