By Ambassador Major General (rtd) Charles Tai Gituai
Today, 12 September 2024, marks the sixth anniversary since the Revitalised Peace Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed.
That was a momentous occasion ending many years of conflict, and it is only right we mark such an important milestone with congratulations to the leaders and people of South Sudan who have remained resolute on the path of peace. These past six years has seen South Sudan experience the longest period of relative peace and stability since gaining independence in 2011.
That said, we are still a long way from what was called for in the Preamble of the Revitalised Agreement, namely “to lay the foundation for a united, peaceful and prosperous society based on justice, equality, respect for human rights and the rule of law.”
Overall, the pace of implementation of the R-ARCSS has been slow, and despite the extension of the Transitional Period by 24 months in 2022, key tasks such as completion of the unification of forces, various elections-related preparatory tasks and the making of the permanent constitution are still outstanding. According to the Peace Agreement, elections are due to be held in December this year, but preparations have stalled at an early stage, and there is growing uncertainty as to whether given the time remaining will be sufficient for the holding of free, fair and credible elections as per the letter and spirit of the Revitalised Agreement.
Therefore, matters have reached the point where serious questions about what will happen in South Sudan in the coming months are being asked, but these are questions that must be answered by the RTGoNU leadership. Unfortunately, the increasing uncertainty around the holding of elections is compounded by the lack of necessary preparations, legal implications, and difficult economic circumstances, all of which underlies the need for clarity on the way forward. This situation, if not properly handled, may threaten the gains made since 12 September 2018 and further create anxiety and undermine the people’s confidence in the leadership of the Parties to the Agreement.
Nonetheless, at this moment of reflection on the sixth anniversary of the signing of the R-ARCSS, it is fair to look at the overall status to date. Importantly, the Executive and Legislature of the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity have continued to convene regularly and discharge their respective mandates at the national and state levels. In that regard, 18 pieces of legislation amended by the National Constitutional Amendment Committee have been enacted by the Parliament.
In terms of the Transitional Security Arrangements, it is commendable that the permanent ceasefire continues to hold. The unification of forces is, however, way behind schedule. Approximately 55,000 of the 83,000 Phase 1 Unified Forces were trained and graduated. That said, it is positive that eight battalions of the army component have been deployed, but the remainder are still not yet deployed, and Phase two is still at the planning stage.
Since May this year, the holdout groups have been engaged along with other stakeholders in the ‘Tumaini initiative’ talks in Nairobi, Kenya. It is hoped that these talks will soon result in a positive outcome towards enhancing the peace process through greater inclusivity, reconciliation, cohesion and therefore, will hasten the implementation of the Peace Agreement.
On the other hand, sadly, the humanitarian situation in the country remains challenged by food insecurity, flooding, and the influx of refugees and returnees owing to the conflict in Sudan. This comes at a time of global downturn in available funding for humanitarian aid.
While resource, economic and financial management reforms are being undertaken, the process has been slow. Meanwhile, the economic situation continues to worsen, compounded by a reduction in oil revenue. Much of the population is in distress due to rising commodity prices, a decline in the value of the South Sudan Pound, and reduced purchasing power.
In terms of transitional justice and the making of the permanent constitution, the relevant legal frameworks have been passed by the Parliament, but the substantive work of the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing, the Compensation and Reparation Authority and the National Constitutional Review Commission has not yet begun.
However, the main challenges on the implementation of the Agreement have included insufficient political will, trust deficit among the Parties, capacity gaps, and persistent levels of intercommunal violence in the states. Furthermore, all the Agreement institutions and mechanisms have insufficient and unpredictable funding, which hampers their work.
Thus, we can assess that throughout these last six years since the signing of the Agreement, gains have been made despite the challenging environment in which South Sudan finds itself. There have been notable efforts to implement the Agreement, and since September 2018, RJMEC has been on the forefront in accordance with our mandate to objectively oversee, monitor, evaluate and highlight the progress, challenges and even lack of implementation. RJMEC has continued to report regularly, and continuously engages with various institutions and organisations, including implementing mechanisms and leaders of the Parties to the Agreement. Various deadlocks on several issues have been handled in accordance with the mandate of RJMEC.
As we mark six years of the Peace Agreement, the question on the way forward and ‘what next?” remains unanswered as uncertainty lingers. In July and early August, an inter-party Committee reviewed implementation of the Agreement and submitted its report to the Principals. With the input of the National Elections Commission and Constitution Commission technical staff, an answer regarding a realistic timetable for elections is keenly awaited. It is therefore incumbent upon the leadership of the RTGoNU to provide direction, the way forward and answer this question of ‘what next?’ as the end of the Transitional Period beckons.
Answering this question would surely reassure, reinvigorate, and boost the confidence of the people, as is evident that the Revitalised Agreement remains the most viable blueprint and transformative framework for achieving enduring peace and prosperity in South Sudan. It is set out in the Preamble that the leaders who signed the Peace Agreement are, inter alia, “determined to compensate our people by recommitting ourselves to peace and constitutionalism and not to repeat mistakes of the past.” Therefore, six years down the road, it is of paramount importance to adhere to the promises made to the people of South Sudan.
God Bless the People of South Sudan.
Ambassador Major General (rtd) Charles Tai Gituai is the Chairperson of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC)