By Philip Buda Ladu
The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is highly likely to experience above-normal rainfall during the upcoming June to September (JJAS) 2025 season.
According to a new forecast released on Tuesday by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) as this offers opportunities for agriculture, the outlook also raises concerns about potential flooding and waterborne diseases across the region.
The forecast, unveiled during the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70), indicates a high probability of wetter-than-average conditions across much of the northern parts of the GHA.
ICPAC also stated in its press release that the JJAS season is crucial for these areas, contributing over 50% of their annual rainfall and more than 80% in most parts of Sudan, making this outlook vital for proactive planning in various sectors.
Key Projections for JJAS 2025:
A 55% probability of above-normal rainfall is expected over central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and eastern Uganda.
Additionally, western Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, Djibouti, and western Eritrea have an approximately 45% probability of experiencing wetter-than-average conditions.
Conversely, coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, northwestern South Sudan, and southeastern Ethiopia face a high chance of below-average rainfall, according to the ICPAC latest weather projection for JJAS.
Most of the region is expected to see a normal onset of rains, with some areas experiencing an early start. However, a delayed onset is more probable in parts of western Ethiopia.
Meanwhile, Southern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries, including Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi, are anticipated to remain mostly dry, as JJAS is not their primary rainy season.
However warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across much of the region, particularly over southern Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Sudan. In contrast, average to below-average temperatures are projected for the IGAD-Karamoja cluster, Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and northeastern Ethiopia.
Thus ICPAC has urged regional and national authorities to implement proactive measures to prepare for and respond effectively to the anticipated conditions.
H.E. Mr. Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, underscored the urgency of collaborative action to tackle the foreseen climate crisis in the region.
“The Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing unprecedented climate extremes… We must institutionalize climate services and work together across borders and sectors to ensure climate risks are integrated into every decision. The future of our region depends on it,” he stated.
Dr. Eng. Habtamu Itefa, Minister of Water and Energy of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, emphasized the importance of continued investment in climate information systems.
“We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information. This is essential for guiding policy decisions and reaching grassroots communities most vulnerable to climate risks,” he said.
For his part, Dr. Abdi Fidar, Officer in Charge at ICPAC, highlighted GHACOF’s role as a critical regional platform for climate experts and decision-makers to co-produce and share actionable climate information, fostering preparedness and response.
The June, July, August and September (JJAS) 2025 climate outlook was generated using an objective seasonal forecasting procedure, in line with recommendations from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
ICPAC will continue to provide regular updates and technical advisories throughout the season.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will offer downscaled, localized forecasts and sector-specific guidance to support governments, humanitarian agencies, and communities in planning and response.